Great Lakes Michigan Map

February 26, 2016
Asian Carp Great Lakes Map

GLISA has created the following maps of observed and projected climate changes from analyses provided by the Cooperative Institute for Climate and Satellites to the Third National Climate Assessment. The maps are based on an ensemble of 1/8-degree statistically downscaled daily climate projections. No individual model is perfect. Each has strengths and weaknesses. We present the following maps as an overall regional consensus of temperature and precipitation projections, but models vary tremendously when comparing specific locations or different seasons within the region. To improve the precision and accuracy of future projections, GLISA is actively developing a Great Lakes Ensemble to identify models that best represent climate conditions in our region.

Projected change in number of days per year that exceed 90°F by 2041-2070 as compared to the 1971-2000 period, assuming emissions of greenhouse gases continue to rise (A2 scenario). While temperatures are rising faster in northern areas, southern areas of the Great Lakes region across sections of Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio will see daily high temperatures exceed the 90°F threshold more frequently in a typical year as these areas are already nearer those high temperatures.

Projected change in number of days per year that exceed 90°F by 2041-2070 as compared to the 1971-2000 period, assuming emissions of greenhouse gases continue to rise (A2 scenario). While temperatures are rising faster in northern areas, the most significant increases in the number of days exceeding the 95°F threshold will remain confined to southern areas. Some locations, however, such as Chicago and Toledo, may see more than two weeks of dangerously hot days per year by mid-century.

Projected change in number of days per year that fall below 32°F by 2041-2070 as compared to the 1971-2000 period, assuming emissions of greenhouse gases continue to rise (A2 scenario). The Eastern Upper Peninsula and Northern Lower Michigan, areas that may see the greatest changes in average temperature, may also experience the greatest decrease in overnight low temperatures, reducing the number of days falling below freezing.

Projected change in the length of the frost-free season (the growing season), measured in days, by 2070-2099 as compared to the 1971-2000 period, assuming emissions of greenhouse gases continue to rise (A2 scenario). The frost-free season is the period between the last spring freeze and the first fall freeze. The Eastern Upper Peninsula and Northern Lower Peninsula of Michigan may see the greatest changes in frost-free season, as these areas currently have short growing seasons. As winters shorten, the typical year at the end of the century may see 1-2 months less of freezing temperatures in some areas.

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